Nakong ea potoloho ea 2023, mantsoe a bohlokoa a kang ho lelekoa mosebetsing, ho fokotsa litefello, le ho tlosoa ha chelete e ngata ho pholletsa le indasteri ea chip.
Ka 2024, e tletseng menahano, ke liphetoho life tse ncha, mekhoa e mecha le menyetla e mecha eo indasteri ea semiconductor e tla ba le eona?
1. Mmaraka o tla hola ka 20%
Haufinyane tjena, lipatlisiso tsa morao-rao tsa International Data Corporation (IDC) li bonts'a hore lekeno la lefats'e la semiconductor ka 2023 le theohile ka 12.0% selemo le selemo, le fihla ho $ 526.5 bilione, empa le phahame ho feta khakanyo ea mokhatlo oa $ 519 bilione ka Loetse.E lebelletsoe ho hola ka 20.2% selemo le selemo ho isa ho $633 bilione ka 2024, ho tloha ho ponelopele e fetileng ea $ 626 bilione.
Ho ea ka ponelopele ea setsi, ponahalo ea kholo ea semiconductor e tla eketseha ha tokiso ea nako e telele ea lihlahisoa likarolong tse peli tse kholo tsa mebaraka, PC le smartphone, fades, le maemo a lethathamongkoloimme indasteri e lebelletsoe ho khutlela maemong a tloaelehileng halofong ea bobeli ea 2024 ha phepelo ea motlakase e ntse e tsoela pele ho tsamaisa kholo ea litaba tsa semiconductor lilemong tse leshome tse tlang.
Ho bohlokoa ho hlokomela hore likarolo tsa 'maraka tse nang le tloaelo ea ho khutla kapa lebelo la kholo ka 2024 ke li-smartphones, likhomphutha tsa motho, li-server, likoloi le mebaraka ea AI.
1.1 Smart Phone
Kamora lilemo tse ka bang tharo tsa ho putlama, 'maraka oa li-smartphone qetellong o ile oa qala ho phahama ho tloha kotara ea boraro ea 2023.
Ho ea ka lintlha tsa lipatlisiso tsa Counterpoint, ka mor'a likhoeli tse 27 tse latellanang tsa selemo le selemo ho theoha ha thekiso ea li-smartphone tsa lefats'e, palo ea pele ea thekiso (ke hore, thekiso ea mabenkele) ka Mphalane 2023 e eketsehile ka 5% selemo le selemo.
Canalys e bolela esale pele hore thomello ea li-smartphone tsa selemo se felletseng e tla fihla ho li-unit tsa limilione tse likete tse 1.13 ka 2023, 'me e lebelletsoe ho hola 4% ho isa ho li-unit tse limilione tse likete tse 1.17 ka 2024. Mmaraka oa li-smartphone o lebelletsoe ho fihla ho li-unit tse limilione tse likete tse 1.25 tse rometsoeng ke 2027, ka sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo. 2023-2027) ea 2.6%.
Sanyam Chaurasia, mohlahlobi e moholo oa Canalys, o itse, "Ho khutla ha li-smartphones ka 2024 ho tla tsamaisoa ke mebaraka e ntseng e hola, moo li-smartphones li lulang e le karolo ea bohlokoa ea khokahano, boithabiso le tlhahiso."Chaurasia o re e le 'ngoe ho tse tharo tsa li-smartphone tse rometsoeng ka 2024 e tla tsoa sebakeng sa Asia-Pacific, ho tloha ho e le' ngoe ho tse hlano ka 2017. E susumetsoa ke tlhokahalo e tsosolositsoeng India, Asia Boroa-bochabela le Asia Boroa, sebaka sena le sona e tla ba se seng sa tse ntseng li hōla ka potlako. ka liperesente tse 6 ka selemo.
Ho bohlokoa ho bolela hore ketane ea hajoale ea indasteri ea mehala e bohlale e holile haholo, tlholisano ea setoko e bohale, 'me ka nako e ts'oanang, ntlafatso ea mahlale le thekenoloji, ntlafatso ea indasteri, koetliso ea litalenta le lintlha tse ling li hohela indasteri ea mehala e bohlale ho totobatsa sechaba sa eona. boleng.
1.2 Lik'homphieutha tsa Motho
Ho latela ponelopele ea morao-rao ea TrendForce Consulting, thomello ea libuka tsa lefats'e e tla fihla ho li-unit tse limilione tse 167 ka 2023, ho theosa ka 10.2% selemo le selemo.Leha ho le joalo, ha khatello ea thepa e ntse e fokotseha, 'maraka oa lefats'e o lebelletsoe ho khutlela phepelong e phetseng hantle le tlhokahalo ka 2024, mme kakaretso ea thomello ea mmaraka oa libuka e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho li-unit tse limilione tse 172 ka 2024, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 3.2% .Tsoelo-pele e kholo ea kholo e tsoa tlhokahalong e ncha ea mmaraka oa khoebo, le katoloso ea li-Chromebook le lilaptop tsa e-sports.
TrendForce e boetse e boletse boemo ba nts'etsopele ea AI PC tlalehong.Setsi sena se lumela hore ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa ho ntlafatsa software le hardware e amanang le AI PC, tsoelo-pele ea pele e tla lebisa tlhokomelo ho basebelisi ba khoebo ba boemo bo phahameng le baetsi ba litaba.Ho hlaha ha AI PCS ho ke ke ha tsosa tlhokahalo e eketsehileng ea theko ea PC, eo boholo ba eona e tla fetohela ho lisebelisoa tsa AI PC hammoho le ts'ebetso ea phetoho ea khoebo ka 2024.
Bakeng sa lehlakore la bareki, sesebelisoa sa hajoale sa PC se ka fana ka lits'ebetso tsa AI tsa leru ho fihlela litlhoko tsa bophelo ba letsatsi le letsatsi, boithabiso, haeba ho se na kopo ea AI ea molai ka nako e khuts'oane, beha maikutlo a ho ntlafatsa boiphihlelo ba AI, ho tla ba thata ho ka potlako eketsa botumo ba bareki ba AI PC.Leha ho le joalo, ka mor'a nako e telele, ka mor'a hore ho be le monyetla oa ho sebelisa lisebelisoa tse ngata tsa AI tse fapa-fapaneng nakong e tlang, 'me moeli oa theko o theoleloa, ho ntse ho ka lebelloa tekanyo ea ho kenella ha bareki ba AI PCS.
1.3 Li-server le Litsi tsa Boitsebiso
Ho latela likhakanyo tsa Trendforce, li-server tsa AI (ho kenyeletsoa le GPU,FPGA, ASIC, joalo-joalo) e tla romella li-unit tse fetang limilione tse 1.2 ka 2023, ka keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 37.7%, e leng karolo ea 9% ea thomello ea seva ka kakaretso, 'me e tla hola ho feta 38% ka 2024, mme li-server tsa AI li tla ikarabella bakeng sa ho feta 12%.
Ka lits'ebetso tse joalo ka li-chatbots le bohlale ba maiketsetso, bafani ba tharollo ea maru ba ekelitse matsete a bona ho bohlale ba maiketsetso, ba tsamaisa tlhokahalo ea li-server tsa AI.
Ho tloha 2023 ho isa 2024, tlhoko ea li-server tsa AI e tsamaisoa haholo ke matsete a sebetsang a bafani ba tharollo ea maru, mme kamora 2024, e tla fetisetsoa libakeng tse ling tsa kopo moo lik'hamphani li tsetelang ho mehlala ea litsebi tsa AI le nts'etsopele ea lits'ebeletso tsa software, tse tsamaisang kholo ea li-server tsa AI tse nang le li-Gpus tse tlase le tse mahareng.Ho lebelletsoe hore sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa thomello ea li-server tsa AI e tla ba ho feta 20% ho tloha 2023 ho isa 2026.
1.4 Likoloi tse ncha tsa motlakase
Ka tsoelo-pele e tsoelang pele ea mekhoa e mene e ncha ea sejoale-joale, tlhoko ea li-chips indastering ea likoloi e ntse e eketseha.
Ho tloha taolong ea mantlha ea sistimi ea matla ho isa lits'ebetsong tse tsoetseng pele tsa lithuso tsa bakhanni (ADAS), theknoloji e se nang mokhanni le litsamaiso tsa boithabiso ba likoloi, ho na le ts'epo e kholo ho li-chips tsa elektroniki.Ho ea ka lintlha tse fanoeng ke Mokhatlo oa China oa Baetsi ba Likoloi, palo ea likoloi tse hlokahalang bakeng sa likoloi tsa setso ke 600-700, palo ea likoloi tse hlokahalang bakeng sa likoloi tsa motlakase e tla nyolohela ho 1600 / koloi, 'me tlhokahalo ea li-chip likoloi tse bohlale tse tsoetseng pele li lebelletsoe ho nyolohela ho 3000 / koloi.
Lintlha tse amehang li bonts'a hore ka 2022, 'maraka oa lefats'e oa li-chip tsa likoloi o ka ba li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 310.Marakeng oa Chaena, moo mokhoa o mocha oa matla o leng matla ka ho fetisisa, thekiso ea likoloi tsa Chaena e fihlile ho 4.58 trillion yuan, 'me maraka oa China oa likoloi tsa likoloi o fihlile ho li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 121,9.Kakaretso ea thekiso ea likoloi tsa China e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho li-unit tse limilione tse 31 ka 2024, ho nyoloha ka 3% ho tloha selemong se fetileng, ho latela CAAM.Har'a bona, thekiso ea likoloi tsa baeti e ne e le li-unit tse ka bang limilione tse 26,8, keketseho ea karolo ea 3,1 lekholong.Lithekiso tsa likoloi tse ncha tsa matla li tla fihla ho li-unit tse ka bang limilione tse 11.5, e leng keketseho ea 20% selemo le selemo.
Ho feta moo, lebelo le bohlale la ho kenella ha likoloi tse ncha tsa matla le tsona lia eketseha.Mohopolong oa sehlahisoa oa 2024, bokhoni ba bohlale e tla ba tataiso ea bohlokoa e totobatsoang ke lihlahisoa tse ngata tse ncha.
Sena se boetse se bolela hore tlhoko ea li-chips 'marakeng oa likoloi selemong se tlang e ntse e le kholo.
2. Mekhoa ea theknoloji ea indasteri
2.1AI Chip
AI esale e le teng ho pholletsa le 2023, 'me e tla lula e le lentsoe la bohlokoa ka 2024.
Mmaraka oa li-chips tse sebelisetsoang ho etsa mesebetsi e mengata ea bohlale ba maiketsetso (AI) o ntse o hola ka sekhahla se fetang 20% ka selemo.Boholo ba 'maraka oa AI chip bo tla fihla ho $53.4 bilione ka 2023, keketseho ea 20.9% ho feta 2022,' me e tla hola 25.6% ka 2024 ho fihlela $ 67.1 bilione.Ka 2027, chelete ea AI chip e lebelletsoe ho feta habeli boholo ba mmaraka oa 2023, ho fihla ho $ 119.4 bilione.
Bahlahlobisisi ba Gartner ba supa hore phetisetso ea nako e tlang ea li-chips tsa tloaelo tsa AI e tla nkela meralo ea hajoale ea chip (discrete Gpus) ho amohela mefuta e fapaneng ea mesebetsi e thehiloeng ho AI, haholo-holo e ipapisitseng le theknoloji ea AI e hlahisang.
2.2 2.5/3D Advanced Packaging maraka
Lilemong tsa morao tjena, ka tsoelo-pele ea mokhoa oa ho etsa li-chip, tsoelo-pele ea "Moore's Law" e fokotsehile, e leng se bakileng ho phahama ho hoholo ha litšenyehelo tse fokolang tsa kholo ea ts'ebetso ea chip.Le hoja Molao oa Moore o fokotsehile, tlhokahalo ea k'homphieutha e eketsehile.Ka nts'etsopele e potlakileng ea likarolo tse ntseng li hlaha tse kang cloud computing, data e kholo, bohlale ba maiketsetso, le ho khanna ka boithaopo, litlhoko tse sebetsang hantle tsa lisebelisoa tsa matla a khomphutha li ntse li phahama le ho feta.
Tlas'a mathata le mekhoa e mengata, indasteri ea semiconductor e se e qalile ho hlahloba tsela e ncha ea ntlafatso.Har'a tsona, liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele li fetohile pina ea bohlokoa, e phethang karolo ea bohlokoa ho ntlafatseng ho kopanngoa ha chip, ho fokotsa sebaka sa chip, ho potlakisa khokahanyo ea motlakase pakeng tsa li-chips, le ho ntlafatsa tshebetso.
2.5D ka boeona ke tekanyo e sa fumaneheng lefats'eng la sepheo, hobane boima ba eona bo kopantsoeng bo feta 2D, empa bo ke ke ba finyella boima bo kopanetsoeng ba 3D, kahoo bo bitsoa 2.5D.Lefapheng la liphutheloana tse tsoetseng pele, 2.5D e bua ka ho kopanngoa ha lera la bohareng, leo hona joale boholo ba lona le entsoeng ka thepa ea silicon, e nka monyetla oa ts'ebetso ea eona e hōlileng ka ho fetisisa le litšoaneleho tse phahameng tsa ho kopanya.
Theknoloji ea ho paka ea 3D le 2.5D e fapane le khokahanyo e phahameng ka ho fetisisa ka lera la bohareng, 3D e bolela hore ha ho na lera la bohareng le hlokahalang, 'me chip e hokahane ka ho toba ka TSV (ka theknoloji ea silicon).
International Data Corporation IDC e bolela esale pele hore mmaraka oa liphutheloana tsa 2.5/3D o lebelletsoe ho fihla sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo (CAGR) ea 22% ho tloha 2023 ho isa 2028, e leng sebaka se tšoenyang haholo 'marakeng oa tlhahlobo ea liphutheloana tsa semiconductor nakong e tlang.
2.3 HBM
Chip ea H100, H100 e hlobotse e lula sebakeng sa mantlha, ho na le mekotla e meraro ea HBM ka lehlakoreng le leng, 'me sebaka se kopaneng sa HBM se lekana le H100 hlobotse.Li-chips tsena tse tšeletseng tse tloaelehileng tsa memori ke e 'ngoe ea "ba molato" ba khaello ea phepelo ea H100.
HBM e nka karolo ea karolo ea mohopolo ho GPU.Ho fapana le memori ea setso ea DDR, HBM ha e le hantle e boloka memori e mengata ea DRAM ka lehlakoreng le otlolohileng, e sa eketseng matla a mohopolo feela, empa hape e laola ts'ebeliso ea matla a memori le sebaka sa chip hantle, e fokotsa sebaka se ka har'a sephutheloana.Ntle le moo, HBM e fihlela bandwidth e phahameng motheong oa mohopolo oa setso oa DDR ka ho eketsa palo ea lipini ho fihlela bese ea memori ea li-bits tse 1024 ka bophara ka stack ea HBM.
Koetliso ea AI e na le litlhoko tse phahameng bakeng sa ho lelekisa phetiso ea data le latency phetiso ea data, ka hona HBM le eona e batloa haholo.
Ka 2020, litharollo tsa ultra-bandwidth tse emeloang ke mohopolo o phahameng oa bandwidth (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3) li ile tsa qala ho hlaha butle-butle.Kamora ho kena ka 2023, katoloso ea bohlanya ea 'maraka oa bohlale ba maiketsetso o emeloa ke ChatGPT e ekelitse tlhoko ea li-server tsa AI ka potlako, empa hape e lebisitse keketsehong ea thekiso ea lihlahisoa tsa boleng bo holimo joalo ka HBM3.
Patlisiso ea Omdia e bonts'a hore ho tloha 2023 ho isa 2027, sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa lekeno la 'maraka oa HBM se lebelletsoe ho nyoloha ka 52%, mme karolo ea eona ea lekeno la mmaraka oa DRAM e lebelletsoe ho nyoloha ho tloha 10% ka 2023 ho isa hoo e ka bang 20% ka 2027. Ho feta moo, theko ea HBM3 e ka ba makhetlo a mahlano ho isa ho a tšeletseng ho feta ea lichifi tse tloaelehileng tsa DRAM.
2.4 Puisano ka Sathelaete
Bakeng sa basebelisi ba tloaelehileng, mosebetsi ona ke oa boikhethelo, empa ho batho ba ratang lipapali tse feteletseng, kapa ba sebetsang maemong a thata a kang mahoatata, theknoloji ena e tla ba e sebetsang haholo, esita le "ho pholosa bophelo".Lipuisano tsa satellite li fetoha lebala le latelang la ntoa le lebisitsoeng ke baetsi ba mehala ea thekeng.
Nako ea poso: Jan-02-2024