Hase feela thepa ea thepa e lokelang ho tlosoa, empa le liselefouno.
Ho latela setsebi sa lipatlisiso tsa mehala ea mehala Ming-Chi Kuo,Mechini ea Androidba tobane le kotsi ea thepa e phahameng, ka Xiaomi hoo e ka bang lekanang le 20-30 milione liselefouno inventory, matla ka ho fetisisa qubu ke processor, Samsung liselefouno le likarolo tsa bona inventory, ho lebeletsoe hore June ka 'na fokotswa ho metsi a tloaelehileng. boemo.
Selemong se fetileng ka May, indasteri ea li-smartphone tsa Chaena e ile ea tšosa lihlahisoa tsa li-smartphone tsa limilione tse 30, ho oa ha lebelo ho feta kamoo ho neng ho lebeletsoe kateng, ho ea ho likarolo tse tharo, lihlahisoa tsa lihlahisoa tsa lihlahisoa tsa lihlahisoa tsa lisebelisoa tsa selefouno tsa Android tse nang le lesale li ile tsa tsoela pele ho phahama, likarolo tsa Weir, theknoloji ea Jusheng micro le Huideng, Matsatsi a thekiso ea thepa a feta tekanyo e tloaelehileng ea lilemo tse ka bang tharo, athe thomello ea li-smartphone lefatšeng ka bophara selemong se fetileng, e theohetse boemong bo tlase ho tloha ka 2013.
Liselefounu tsa lehae tse maemong a tlase le a mahareng li kenya ntoa ea theko e neng e e-so ka e e-ba teng, mefuta e phahameng ea Apple le eona ke litheko tse sa tloaelehang tsa litheko, ts'ebetso ea morao-rao ea litaba tsa lethathamo la mehala ea selefouno ka nako e fetang selemo, mokhoa oa ho kenya letsoho le ho tšosa lapeng tsoang linaheng lisele selefouno likarolo indasteri ketane?Setoko se tla hlakoloa neng?Bala sehlooho sena 'me u tla ithuta ka.
1. Xiaomi, Samsung selefouno inventory boemo ba
2. kamoo bahlahisi ba liselefouno ba ka kenyang thepa kateng
3. Ts'ebetso ea morao-rao ea ketane ea phepelo ea liselefouno
01 The Great Android Recession
Tlhokahalo e tlase le e bohareng ke eona e mpe ka ho fetisisa
Mechini ea Android e tobane le kotsi ea ho ba le thepa e phahameng, 'me ho tlosoa ha thepa ho na le ho putlama ho hoholo, ka lebaka la tlhokahalo e fokolang ea likarolo le likarolo tse tsoang ho lihlahisoa kapa barekisi / barekisi, litsebi li lumela hore likhoeling tse 6-9 tse tlang li ntse li tla bona palo e kholo ea lihlahisoa. thomello selemo le selemo sekhahla sa kholo ea fokotseha.
Lekeno la khoebo ea mehala ea mehala ea Xiaomi le fokotsehile ka 11.1% selemo le selemo kotareng ea boraro ea 2022, 'me thomello ea li-smartphone e theohile ka 8.4% selemo le selemo ho ea ho li-unit tse limilione tse 40 le li-ASP tsa liselefouno li theohile ka 3% ho isa ho 1,058 yuan.
Phatlalatso ea litheoleloe ntse e tsoela pele, haufinyane Mopresidente oa Sehlopha sa Xiaomi Lu Weibing o boletse hore theko ea RedmiK60 ea eona e ncha, e ileng ea lokolloa ka December, e fokotsehile ho li-yuan tse 2,999 feela bakeng sa 12 + 512GB, ho fokotseha ha theko ea 300 yuan, le tiiso ea theko bakeng sa basebelisi ba seng ba rekile mofuta ona.
Ha e le hantle, ka liphatlalatso qetellong ea selemo se fetileng, lisebelisoa tsa liselefouno tsa Xiaomi tsa palo e kholo ea lihlahisoa tsa theko e tlaase le tse mahareng li theohile, empa ha li e-s'o lokolohe ka ho feletseng kotsing ea ho ba le thepa e phahameng.Thepa ea eona ea "thepa e entsoeng" e fihlile ho li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 27.3 karolong ea boraro ea 2022, ho tloha selemong se fetileng, empa e ikarabella bakeng sa 65% ea chelete ea eona ea selefouno karolong ea boraro.
Ts'ebetso ea Samsung ea kampo ea lefats'e ea Android le eona ha e na tšepo.
Lekeno la Samsung Electronics la kotara ea bone ea 2022 le theohile ka liperesente tse 8 selemo le selemo mme phaello ea ts'ebetso e ne e le tlase ho feta kamoo ho neng ho nahanoa pele, ka lebaka la ho fokotseha butle ha thekiso ea li-smartphone karolong ea eona ea MX (Mobile eXperience).Karohano ea MX ea Samsung ke karolo ea sehlopha sa khoebo sa DX (Device eXperience), 'me lekhetho la eona le theohile ka 4% selemo le selemo le 10% ka tatellano kotareng ea bone ea 2022 ha e kopantsoe le lekeno le tsoang lisebelisoa tsa lapeng le lihlahisoa tse ling.
Cell the stagnation, cell phone chips and other electronic parts inventory qubu, mokhoa oa ho cheka metšoasong ena, baetsi ba liselefouno ba entse mosebetsi oa bona oa sekolo.Li-chip majors li ile tsa senola hore tlhokahalo ea 'maraka oa thelefono ea thelefono e tlaase le e bohareng ke e fokolang ka ho fetisisa ha e bapisoa le maraka a phahameng a thelefono.Ha e le hantle, sebakeng sa theko ea li-yuan tse 1000-3000 'marakeng oa thelefono ea thelefono e tlaase le e bohareng, lifono tse bohlale tsa malapeng li koahela sebaka se seholo ka ho fetisisa hape.
E tobileng ka ho fetisisa ke litumellano, ntoa ea theko, baetsi ba liselefouno ba tloaelehileng ba "6.18", "Double 11" le linako tse ling tsa bohlokoa bakeng sa lipapatso tse kholo.Selemong se fetileng ka November, 'maraka oa liselefouno o ile oa kenya mokete oa "wait party" carnival, kampo ea Android, 2000 yuan e ka reka tlhophiso e leka-lekaneng ea ts'ebetso ea "mochine oa libakete", ￥1000 theko ke ho feta ho lumella batho ho khetha leihlo.￥2000-3000 bracket ea The Phokotso ea theko hangata ke eona e totobetseng ka ho fetesisa.
Apple liselefouno ka ntle ho kampong ea Android, eo hape e belaelloang ka ho kenya letsoho ts'ebetsong ea ho fokotsa theko, selemong se fetileng Apple liselefouno li sa tsoa lokolloa ka nako e ka tlaase ho khoeli, ho phaella ho mehlala e phahameng ea mehlala e tloaelehileng e ile ea oela ka tlase ho 5200 yuan, ho tloha ka February 5. Selemong, Apple le eona e fokotsehile ka seoelo, mefuta ea maemo a holimo ea iPhone 14 Pro mabenkele a lumelletsoeng ntle le marang-rang a atisa ho fokotsa litheko ka li-yuan tse ka bang 700, 'maraka oa lefats'e oa li-smartphone o kena nakong e lefifi.
Baetsi thakholong eatlhahiso ea mochine o mocha, e ka boela ea thehoa ho nahanoa ka thepa, ba tseba "veine ea khale ka libotlolong tse ncha", e hlakileng ka ho fetisisa ke mohlala o ka sebelisoang tlhophiso e fokolang e lekanang.
Basebelisi ba bang ba nang le tsebo ba boletse hore selemong sena, re bona lihlahisoa tse ngata, esita le lihlahisoa tse kholo, li tsoela pele ho sebelisa likarolo tsa khale haholo, 'me likarolo tse ling tse nang le lihlahisoa tse kholo li lokela ho sebelisoa mefuteng e meholo, lihlahisoa tsa lekala li ke ke tsa cheka thepa.
Ho qala halofo ea bobeli ea 2021, likarolo tsa elektroniki tse sehiloeng li se li qalile ho beleha, ho latela lipalo-palo tsa Jiji Cat, mefuta e mengata ka 2021 mabapi le tlhophiso ea lihlahisoa tse ling tse tummeng tse phatlohang hore li hlophisitsoe hantle, ebe li thathamisitsoe ho rekisoa ka 2022.
Tse ling tsa tlhophiso ea khale ea lilemo tse fetileng ka 2022 e ntse e ka bonoa hangata, joalo ka Qualcomm Snapdragon 870, Snapdragon 778, maemo a mohala oa mohala oa CMOS IMX766, motsoako oa kh'amera e nyane ea 8 + 2 MP, lisebelisoa tse ncha tsa selemo ho kenyelletsa le lihlahisoa tsa boemo bo holimo. , ho kenyelletsa le lihlahisoa tse ka sehloohong tsa e 'ngoe le e' ngoe, re tšoela ka mathe ho ntlafatsa ha ho totobetse, 'me ba bang ba bile ba theohile.
Ka nako e telele, potoloho ea tumellano ea tumellano ea indasteri e bile likhoeli tse 18, empa ka 2022, potoloho e ncha ea bareki ba malapeng e se e le likhoeli tse 30 le tse 36.Moetapele oa phepelo ea lifono tsa mehala o boletse hore ho tloha kotara ea boraro le ea bone ea 2021, ho fokotseha ha litheko ho fetohile sehlooho sa bahlahisi ba mehala ea mehala, phallo ea 'maraka ea li-processor tsa MediaTek le Qualcomm e se e qalile ho fokotsa litheko.
Phokotso ea theko ea mochini o mocha e ntse e tsoela pele ho fihlela qalong ea selemo sa 2023, lifono tse tlase, theko ea thobalano ea Redmi ha e sa le monopoly, hammoho le Ace2, 'nete ea GT Neo5 lock 2000-3000 yuan karolo ea theko, e boloka e se fokola ho feta Tlhophiso ea K60 ka nako e ts'oanang ea theko ea botšepehi.
Baetsi ba morao-rao ba ka sebetsana joang le ho putlama ha tlhokahalo, mohlomong moketeng oa mabenkele oa "6.18" oa selemo sena o ka bonoa - hore na litheko li theoha haholo, ba rekisitseng hampe, khatello ea thepa.
02 Liphetho tsa morao-rao tsa phepelo ea mehala.
Ho thella, Ho fokola
Likarolo tsa elektroniki tsa mohala oa thekeng, litlaleho tsa memori tsa hoo e ka bang 15-20%, li-processor le li-chips tse ling li etsa hoo e ka bang 15-20%, li-skrini tsa 10-20%, lik'hamera 10-15%, RF / antenna 5-10%, ho phaella ho likhetla / likarolo tsa sebopeho, libeteri, FPC / PCB joalo-joalo.
Ka 2022, phepelo ea mehala ea mehala hangata e angoa ke phokotseho e matla ea tlhokahalo ea bareki, 'me boemo ba lethathamo la thepa bo lula bo khanya, bo lebisa tahlehelong ea ts'ebetso, ho kenyeletsoa empa ho sa felle feela ho chip duo ea mehala ea mehala ea MediaTek le Qualcomm, Texas. bareki ba bangata ka ho fetisisa, moetapele oa li-chips tsa menoana ea Huitian Technology, moetapele oa lense oa lefats'e oa letsatsi Sunwoo Optical, baetsi ba li-chip ba RF ba Chosen Micro le VTech, moetapele oa MLCC Murata, le baetsi ba li-memory chip, ba kenya letsoho tikolohong ea 'maraka e thata haholo ka 2023. .
Lintlha tse latelang ke liphetho tsa morao-rao tsa k'hamphani e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe e amanang le karolo ea mohala oa thekeng.
Li-processor tsa mehala ea cellular le li-chips tse ling
Lekeno la MediaTek's Q4 2022 le theohile 25% selemo le selemo le 26% ka tatellano.Karolo ea khoebo ea li-handset, e tlatselitseng 52% ea lekeno la MediaTek kotareng ea bone ea 2022, e theohile ka 25% selemo le selemo le 30% ka tatellano ka lebaka la ho theoha ha China, tlhoko e fokolang ea bareki le liphetoho tsa lethathamo la li-OEM tsa smartphone joalo ka bareki ka mabifi. fetola lethathamo la bona, karolo ea MediaTek e ntlafalitse lekeno bakeng sa kotara ea pele ea 2023 ho theohela ho $ 300- $ 3.4 bilione, ho theosa le 35- MediaTek e theoletse lekhetho ho $300-3.4 bilione bakeng sa Q1 2023, e theohile ka 35-40% selemo le selemo. 3-12% ka tatellano, 'me e tataisitse maemo a lihlahisoa ho khutlela ho tloaelehileng qetellong ea H1 2023.
Lekeno la karolo ea Qualcomm's CDMA Technologies (QCT) bakeng sa kotara ea pele ea lichelete tsa 2022/23, e kenyelletsang li-chips tsa li-smartphone, likarolo tse ka pele tsa RF, li-chips tsa likoloi le lisebelisoa tsa IoT, li theohile liperesente tse 11 selemo le selemo, 'me lekeno la handset chip le theohile ka 18. peresente selemo le selemo.Ka lebaka la maemo a moruo le a tlhokeho, k'hamphani e ntse e tsoela pele ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea chelete mme joale e lebelletse hore maemo a ntseng a eketseha a lethathamo la lisebelisoa indastering ea li-handset a tla tsoela pele ho fihlela bonyane halofo ea pele ea 2023, ka ho fokotseha ho hoholo ha thepa ea 3G, 4G le 5G e ka bang teng ka 2023 ha e bapisoa. ho fihlela ka 2022.
Moetapele oa "fingerprint identification chip" Huideng Technology o lebeletse ho fumana phaello e tsoang ho beng ba k'hamphani ea motsoali ea -900 milione ho ea ho -600 milione ea li-yuan ka selemo sa 2022, ha ho bapisoa le nako e tšoanang ea selemo se fetileng, e tla fella ka tahlehelo. .Lebaka le ka sehloohong la phetoho ea ts'ebetso ke hore boholo ba lihlahisoa tsa k'hamphani li itšetlehile ka 'maraka oa li-smartphone, o anngoeng ke boemo ba machaba, macroeconomy le seoa se tsoelang pele, se fellang ka ho theoha ho hoholo ha' maraka le tlhokahalo ea bareki;ka nako e ts'oanang, tlholisano e kholo ea lihlahisoa tsa k'hamphani e matlafalitse khatello ea theko ea thekiso, e bakileng phokotso ea selemo le selemo ea 35% ho isa ho 45% ea chelete ea ts'ebetso ea k'hamphani ka 2022. Ka 2022 ea lichelete, tokisetso ea ho senyeha ha thepa e fapaneng ke e hakanyetsoa ho tloha ho $702 milione ho isa ho $872 milione.
Lisebelisoa tsa memori ea selefouno
Lekeno la Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2022 le theohile ka 8%, phaello e sebetsang e theohile ka 69% selemo le selemo.Sehlopha sa khoebo sa DS (Device Solutions), se ikarabellang haholo bakeng sa khoebo ea semiconductor le chip foundry, se tlalehile phokotseho ea 24% ea lekeno karolong ea bone ea 2022 ha e bapisoa le nako e tšoanang selemong se fetileng le ho theoha ka 13% ho tloha nakong e tšoanang selemong se fetileng. ;chelete ea eona bakeng sa selemo se tletseng 2022 e ne e le 9,846 limilione tse likete tse hapiloe (hoo e ka bang $ 79.9 limilione tse likete), keketseho ea 3% ha e bapisoa le 2021. Ho fokotseha ha chelete bakeng sa sehlopha sena sa khoebo e ne e le haholo-holo ka lebaka la ho kenngoa ha thepa ea bareki-lehlakoreng le theko e tlaase ea memori ea memori.
Lekeno la SK Hynix la kotara ea bone ea 2022 le theohile ka liperesente tse 38 selemo le selemo, ka tahlehelo e felletseng ea 3.52 trillion e hapiloeng ($ 2.881 bilione), ha e bapisoa le phaello e felletseng ea 3.32 trillion e hapiloeng ($ 2.717 billion) selemo pejana, kotara ea pele ea SK Hynix. tahlehelo ho tloha kotara ea boraro ea 2012 le tahlehelo e kholo ka ho fetisisa ea kotara e tlalehiloeng.SK Hynix e ntse e na le tšepo mabapi le tlhokahalo ea mmaraka kotareng ea pele ea 2023, ka tebello ea hore sekhahla sa kholo ea thomello ea thepa ea DRAM se ka theoha ka ho feta 10% mme ho putlama ho tla tsoela pele halofong ea pele ea selemo.
Lekeno la Micron le theohile ka 39% ka tatellano le 47% selemo ho pota kotareng ea pele ea lichelete tsa 2023. Ka lebaka la phapang e matla lipakeng tsa phepelo le tlhoko e eang ka 2023, Micron e lebelletse hore phaello ea indasteri ka bophara e tla qholotsoa selemo ho pota.Micron e nka khato e tiileng ea ho fokotsa phepelo le litšenyehelo.Micron e nka khato e tiileng ea ho fokotsa phepelo le litšenyehelo.
Pontšo ea mohala oa thekeng
Pontšo ea lehae e kholo ea BOE 2022 chelete ea pele ea kotara tse tharo 132.744 li-yuan tse limilione tse likete, ho theoha ka 19.45% selemo le selemo;phaello e ka hlahisoang ke li-yuan tse limilione tse likete tse 5.291, e theohile ka 73.75% selemo le selemo.Har'a tsona, chelete ea kotara ea boraro e ne e le RMB 41.134 limilione tse likete, ho theoha ka 26.79% selemo le selemo;phaello e ngata e hlahisitsoeng ke 'm'e e ne e le RMB 1.305 bilione.2022 Ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa Loetse, khamphani e entse litokisetso tsa ho senyeha ha thepa e fapaneng ea kakaretso ea RMB 7,482.22 milione, mme tahlehelo ea ts'enyehelo e ile ea ama phaello eohle ea -RMB 2,957.17 milione.
Lekeno la sehlopha sa khoebo sa Samsung SDC (Samsung Display) bakeng sa kotara ea bone ea 2022 e ne e hapiloe ka libilione tse 9.31 (hoo e ka bang $ 7.6 bilione), ho theosa ka 3% selemo le selemo le 1% ka tatellano;chelete ea selemo e tletseng ea 2022 e ne e le 3.438 trillion e hapuoeng (hoo e ka bang $ 27.9 limilione tse likete), ho fihlela 8% ha e bapisoa le 2021. Samsung e boletse hore li-panels tsa OLED tsa mohala o phahameng ha lia ameha haholo, chelete e kenang e ntse e tiile.
Li-chip inventory li hlahile maobane
E tla fola neng?
Indasteri ea liselefouno e bile le mathata a thepa nakong e fetileng.
Ka 2014, ha ho fihla mehla ea 4G, basebetsi ba bararo ba ka sehloohong ba ho fokotsa lithuso, ho arohana ha "China Cool Union", khoebo ea mocha oa malapeng e ile ea tšosa "li-inventory tse limilione tse 200";kotara ea pele ea 2020 ho qhoma ha moqhaka o mocha, thepa e koetsoe, thepa ea li-smartphone ea China e ka tlase ho limilione tse 50, e tlase haholo likarolong tse robong tse fetileng, ho tloha ka nako eo ts'ebeliso e sa koaloang le ea boiphetetso, kotara ea bobeli ea thomello ea 2020 e fetang limilione tse 100.
Phallo ea lihlahisoa tsa selemo e boetse e fetohile ts'ebetso e tloaelehileng bakeng sa baetsi ba li-smartphone, joalo ka likhaello tse kholo tsa ketane ea Android ho felisa tharollo e sa felletseng qetellong ea 2017, le likhaello tsa khaello ea boqapi ho Apple. mehlala qetellong ea 2018.
Boemong ba ketsahalo ea Huawei le khaello ea leqhubu la mantlha ka 2021, baetsi ba mehala ea mehala ba tobane le tlholisano e sehlōhō le ho beha lethathamo la lintho tse behang kotsing ea ho eketsa pokello.Ho tlosoa ha Huawei, e leng karolo ea 40% -50% ea 'maraka oa naha oa liselefouno, ho boetse ho etsa hore libapali tsa liselefouno li qale ho ba le tšepo e sa boneng.'Me inflation ea 2022, boemo ba Russia le Ukraine, seoa sa malapeng, bareki ba liselefouno ho nka sebaka sa ho phomola ha maikutlo, batho ba bangata ba khetha ho tsoela pele ho "mamela".
Ka Mots'eanong 2022, mecha ea litaba e ile ea hlalosa ho putlama ha indasteri ea li-smartphone tsa China e le "ts'ebetso e putlamang", indasteri ea mehala ea mehala e se e ntse e na le li-smartphones tse limilione tse 30, ho kenyeletsoa lihlahisoa tse felileng tse fetang limilione tse 20 le lihlahisoa tse felisitsoeng tse fetang limilione tse 10 le likarolo tsa mantlha. e teng thepeng e teng ka lebenkeleng.Strategy Analytics e lokolitse tlaleho e bonts'ang hore thomello ea li-smartphone tsa lefats'e ka bophara ea li-unit tse libilione tse 1.2 ka 2022 e maemong a tlase ho tloha ka 2013.
Mmarakeng oa lehae, 'maraka oa li-smartphone oa China o tla romella li-unit tse ka bang limilione tse 286 ka 2022, ho theoha ka 13.2% selemo ho pota.Karolong ea bone, 'maraka oa li-smartphone oa China o rometse li-unit tse ka bang limilione tse 72.92, ho theosa le 12.6% selemo le selemo.
Tlhokahalo e ke keng ea tsosoa e tla hatella baetsi ba li-chip, li-chips tsa mehala ea mehala ea lapeng, haholo sistimi ea Android e tobane le khatello e kholo ea thepa.
Ka 2022 Q3, lethathamo la baetsi ba lisebelisoa tsa mehala ea selefouno ea Android ba ile ba tsoela pele ho nyoloha ka selikalikoe se le seng, ho baetsi ba li-cell phone tsa lapeng Weir, Josun Micro le Huideng Technology, mohlala, matsatsi a thekiso ea thepa ea lik'hamphani tse tharo. li haufi kapa ho feta matsatsi a 250, ho feta tekanyo ea karolelano ea lilemo tse tharo tse fetileng.Maemo a thepa a ntse a nyoloha kotara ka kotara ho tloha ka 21Q1, 'me ka 22Q3 matsatsi a tlhahiso ea thepa ea lik'hamphani tse tharo a fihlile matsatsing a 277, 284 le 247 ka ho latellana, ho feta tekanyo ea matsatsi a 113 ea baetsi ba lik'hamera tsa selefouno lefatšeng ka bophara.
Ho romelloa ha li-smartphone tsa lefats'e ka linako tsohle ho ngola litholoana tse mpe ka ho fetesisa nalaneng, palo e tloaelehileng ea li-chips tsa mehala ea selefouno e ntse e tsoela pele ho beha maemo a macha, le hoja ho theoha ha liselefouno ke 'nete e ke keng ea qojoa, empa hona joale ho The Great Recession ha tlase ho potoloho ea chip, ha pholiso ea semiconductor, ts'ebetso ea smartphone, e ntse e leka kholiseho ea motho e mong le e mong.
Nako ea poso: Feb-24-2023